Linux is the answer if cloud computing & Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) is going to work… this open-source operating system is the future of SOA & cloud computing.  Let’s present the argument:

Microsoft knows what it’s doing with SOA and Vista

Traditional operating systems will be dead in a few years.   they’ll be killed by service-oriented architecture.  That’s what my money’s on and if you think I’m a rabid Web 2.0 nutcase then you can’t see the bigger picture.  Microsoft have realised it.  In fact, that may (somewhat ironically) be one of the reasons Vista was such a retrograde step in opening up Web 2.0: Microsoft wants to milk us for as much as possible, and the best short-term plan is to positively hold back cloud computing & SOA for as long as possible.  They know Service Oriented Architecture is coming, but as the biggest player by far in the exisiting OS market, why accelerate its growth?  It makes sense to stave it off as long as possible and rely on a business model that they know works.

The reason Microsoft is starting to come round now is that while they don’t wish to accelerate the advance of cloud computing (and miss out on flogging us Windows 7, 8, 9 & 10 for our very earth-based desktops) they want to be the first to the table once a certain tipping point has reached and cloud computing is not only inevitable but immediately forseeable.

Imagine a dog.  This dog has knocked a big butcher’s block off the kitchen table, and two big hunks of steak have fallen off.  One steak is within reach, so he sits there and starts work on it.  The other steak has landed on the other side of the room.  Now, he’s not the only dog in the house.  There’s another one upstairs.  This dog upstairs has heard the commotion and starts coming down.  Now does the first dog immediately rush off to defend the second steak before the first dog gets there?  No.  He’s got enough time, so he wolfs down the steak he’s got before doing an about-turn and pouncing on the second steak, before the second dog gets there.

OK… this is a very laboured and imperfect analogy: the first steak is the existing operating systems and software market, the second the cloud computing and web services market.  The first dog is Microsoft and the second represents its competitors.

The Future of SOA, SaaS DaaS and PaaS

As I forecast in this post, one sensible (but shocking) strategy for Microsoft is to “leap-frog” the market and invest heavily in cloud-based “operating systems” platforms and use this “operating system” to roll out software-as-a-service.  There will be a place for wholly deskbound solutions (late adopters – mostly home users) but this market will be a fraction of what it is now.  I predict Microsoft will concentrate their development on the platform in the cloud and stop pushing their desktop operating systems so hard.  Why?  Because more and more people will be running Linux.  It’s free, and it’s becoming more and more widely supported.  Why should people invest in two operating systems? They won’t.  They’ll use Linux to boot up their computer and use a cloud-based system to interface with software, their desktop, etc.  But it’s going to be messy.  Some people will be running Linux, some Apple, and some will be using Microsoft’s latest home OS.  But the real future is in the cloud and whoever can create the most ubiquitous, one-size-fits-all solution will dominate the market.  Remember, we’ve already seen it with Microsoft and Windows: by leaving the hardware to others (which was seen as a ghastly mistake at the time), Microsoft made an awesome coup in the OS and thus software market.  It scored twice by capturing a platform: it sold the OS and could roll out the software too.  Now Microsoft, if they have any sense, will concentrate less on the earth-bound operating systems market for everyone to fight over and concentrate on making a solution in the cloud.  It should stop beating us round the face with more bulky additions, millions of add-ons and lines of code in its OSes and give us a neat, trimmed-down, lean, super-fast desktop OS that hooks into the real delivery system – the OS in the cloud.  But the OS in the cloud is where the real money will be made because more and more people will switch to Linux – and eventually Microsoft’s earth-based OS business will dry up.

Linux users need to get their heads out of their asses

There’s something about Unix users.  They’re often too clever for their own good.  They’re often smug.  They’re always bloody clever.  They’re a part of a club and often like to look down on the people who use Windows: the double-clickers, the Office buyers, the Wizard users.  Unix users like to have a relationship with their computer.  It’s more personal.  They’re probably built their computer themselves.  I have a suspicion that many Linux users are pleased that it’s more troublesome to use for the average user.  It keeps the riff-raff out of the club.

Here’s the opinion of one Linux user, Scott:

I am sorry, but the Linux world has got to get over the “geekie-ness” and get something out that is for the users. Yes, you can build it, customize it, make your own distro for all it’s worth. The bottom line is that people want an OS that runs the software and hardware they use.

I am an avid Linux and long time Mac user and I have to say, I feel like I am fighting with the OS much of the time. Getting drivers to work is just one of my pet peeves. Yes I can spend my time figuring it out on google, but why? Say what you want, but I can boot up OS X or Windows and they all work (software and/or hardware)…..and you do not need to be a “geek” to get them to work. OS X is what Linux should aspire to be….simple, powerful, easy to use, with enough play under the hood to satisfy any geek.

We can say…virus free, runs on old hardware, and “I do not bow to the MS empire” all you want…but the bottom line is that Linux does not work or run the software or hardware people want….in the home or business. If it did, do you not think more people would be using it?

What I do find funny is that the Linux/OpenSource community may have bigger ego’s and heads that Mac users.

Well, Linux users may take umbrage at my sweeping generalizations, and some may argue that it’s not in their interests to become mainstream anyway (they’re happy as they are) but as I see it, a chance for Linux to come into the mainstream is a major opportunity for a great OS – after all, what’s irritating for existing users of Linux at the moment?  Lack of support from hardware manufacturers, that’s what.  Getting drivers that work.  It’s not mainstream so it’s not supported, so users have to pointlessly wait around for the community to hack the problem.  Adoption by the mainstream would eliminate this problem.  The community would grow.  Linux would be the ultimate King of the operating System.  It’s free so it would become pre-installed on all systems.  People who wanted to “upgrade” to Windows would become fewer and fewer.

Windows users need to get their heads out of their asses

There is a great culpability attached to Windows.  OK, things might go wrong, but you’ve always got someone to blame.  In fact, it’s become almost a sport.  It doesn’t really matter if they can solve your problem or not (which is, I suppose, a good job); the point is it’s Not Your Fault.  With Unix, you have no-one to blame but yourself for choosing the bloody stupid free stuff in the first place.  In this sense, there is a problem.  As I see it, the solution is one of these:

a) Retailers offer Linux customer support (but they won’t know what the hell they’re talking about)
b) Hardware manufacturers offer customer support (Massively unlikely)
c) Businesses are set up that offer a flashy front-end to Unix and charge a nominal fee… mostly for customer support

Asking the community is not enough for the late majority onward: they want a number to ring.  A figure head to hate.  Someone to Blame.  They’ve never been sure of computers and they pretty much need that.

Service Oriented Architecture: Exisiting Open-Source Solutions

Take a look here for some discussion on gOS 3.

Advances are being made and for me, the future of SOA, software, data and platforms as a service is very clear.  As ever, I heartily recommend taking a look at The Web Service website to have a look at some of the possibilities of Data as a Service and cloud computing.

As ever we’ll continue to look at Service-Oriented Architecture: Software as a Service, Data as a Service and Platform as a Service on this blog… if only to ask the pernenial question: “What is Service Oriented Architecture?!”

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